Forecasting the Future Drought Indices Due to the Effects of Climate Change in Al Najaf City, Iraq.

Abstract Drought is a natural disaster associated with shortage of water availability for specified region within specific time period. The impacts drought are significant and extend to damage many important life aspects such as environmental, economic, social activities. forecasting the events an essential element planning this disaster, reducing its effectiveness response. three characteristic frequency, intensity, period key parts assessment droughts. Here, two indices (The Reconnaissance Index (RDI), standardized precipitation index (SPI)) were used future Al Najaf city, Iraq. Thirty years meteorological data (average monthly temperature) (2021–2050) downloaded from site Centre Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) five grid points cover overall study area. computation these conducted at 12-month scale included calculation potential evapotranspiration by Thorthwaite method. temporal intensity well frequency configurations calculated analyzed each index. results showed that general average level expected will mildly dry while maximum extremely dry. more severe seasons forecasted in 2038, 2034 2021, respectively. Also, prevailing event be one year interval occurred four consecutive years, 3.33% exceedance probability.